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Thoughts on Paper

My predictions for the second half of 2020

Koby Ofek
Image by loulou Nash from Pixabay

2020 has been a wild ride so far. Unpredictable, twisted, crazy.

Nobody asked for this, and as the old Chinese idiom goes, I truly believe that It’s better to be a dog in a peaceful time than be a man in a chaotic period.

I live in a country where it's almost never boring. It's almost never peaceful. It's almost never quite. Accordingly, I do fantasize about being a Cooker Spaniel in Southern France or something. In other times, i just know I'd miss all the action.

It's hard to predict what comes next, but I want to try. I'll revisit my predictions in early 2021 (Marked my calendar already, so no regrets, you hear!) and see how well did I do. I'm mixing in personal and business predictions, forecasts about the world, weather, technology and personal stuff that I think will happen. I'm pretty good at predicting stuff that already happened, let's see how I do with things yet to come...


1. Sometime in July Israel will have no new Covid-19 patients - 80%

2. Open borders will start bringing new Covid-19 carriers to Israel in August. This trend will worsen but, new patient numbers will remain <20 for a while - 80%

3. By September - US will have >150000 known Covid-19 casualties - 50%

4. US will remain the world leader in Covid-19 casualties, at least according to numbers on record - 90%

5. Total number of reported deaths will exceed 800,000 by the end of the year - 40%

6. By the end of the year, at least 3 major western countries will announce that they are experiencing a second wave, and will announce the reintroduction of social/physical distancing measures - 50%

7. A working vaccine will be announced by a private company by the end of the year. It will be approved for distribution without undergoing all regular safety measures - 50%

8. An American investigative committee or a formal bureau (like the CIA) will declare that China has deliberately caused the spread of the virus - 50%

9. US-China relationship will worsen significantly as a direct result of COVID. This will manifest in at least 2 of the following: economic sanctions or import taxes, withdrawal of companies from foreign territory, boycotting of produce, partial diplomatic withdrawal - 50%

10. The Kawasaki like disease hurting children and teens following COVID will become a big thing. By the end of the year, more than 10000 official cases will be reported globally - 30%

11. The countries that will be leading the deathtoll by EOY will be USA, UK, Brazil, Italy, Spain, Mexico and Russia - 60%.

12. One of the major sports leagues in the US will resume and re-paused after an athlete or a few of them will catch COVID - 70%


13. The Dow Jones by EOY will be below 25,000 - 50%

14. The Dow Jones by EOY will be below 23,000 - 30%

15. The Dow Jones by EOY will be below 20,000 - 10%

16. At least one big American airline will file for bankruptcy by the EOY - 30%

17. The JETS ETF following airline financial activity will be below $15 by EOY - 50%

18. The JETS ETF following airline financial activity will be below $10 by EOY - 20%

19. Amazon will finish this year with the highest market cap in the world - 50%

20. By EOY there will not be 2 companies in the world above 1 trillion $ market cap - 80%


21. The Israeli government will not survive this year, and new elections will be declared before EOY - 40%

22. The trial of prime minister Netanyahu will not significantly advance this year - 90%

23. The blue and white party will not be a part of the government by the EOY - 50%

24. Joe Biden will be the democratic candidate for the US presidency - 80%

25. Donald Trump will be the Republic candidate for the US presidency - 90%

26. At least 10 states in the US will allow or force long distance voting due to COVID - 60%

27 Donald Trump will win the election - 80%

28. Donald Trump will win the popular vote - 50%

29. The Republicans will keep the Senate - 80%

30. The Democrats will keep the House - 50%


31. By the end of the year zombies will (again) not turn out to be real - 90%

32. By the end of the year (again) an astroid will not hit earth - 90%

33. By the end of the year a third world war will not erupt - 90%

34. NASA's land-ocean temperature index will not hit a new high this year - 50%

35. Neymar will not play for PSG in 2021-2 - 30%

36. Lebron James will play for the LA Lakers in 2021-2 - 70%

37. Despite having a full team with Thompson, Curry and Green, the Golden State Warriors will be under 60% success by EOY.


38. My daughter will start going to kindergarten sometime this fall - 80%

39. My daughter will finish 2020 in the same kindergarten she started at - 50%

40. My daughter will quit her pacifier by EOY - 30%

41. I return working at least half a day from coffeeshops this year, and do it constantly for at least 3 months - 80%

42. I maintain writing at least 1 long-form article in any medium (on this blog or elsewhere) once a week on average - 60%

43. I maintain my current getting-things-done productivity system, with 1 page of documented Todos at least 80% of working days - 50%

44. I hit 100K karma points on Reddit - 30%

45. I will resume running this year on a regular basis, 3 times a week and maintain it for 3 months - 50%

46. I will run 20KM/week for 3 months - 30%

47. I take a trip abroad this year with the family - 30%

48. I take a trip abroad this year alone - 50%

49. Something personal that I will score fairly despite keeping it personal - 30%

50. I check and score this list by January 7, 2021

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